Hello,
“In like a lion…” is part of the weather expression attributed to the month of March. The stock market has also been roaring higher to begin this month and year. We’ve already seen 21 new closing high records for the S &P 500 in 2024 (we had zero last year) and it’s the 15th
best start to the year since 1928!
Amazingly, the market rally since November – while fast, furious, and mostly uninterrupted – has taken place with a fairly calm underlying sentiment as evidenced by a volatility index tracking near historically low levels. This resembles a lamb much more than a lion. Still, this time of year arrives with some excitement: cherry blossoms, the start of spring, and the NCAA basketball tournament!
In fact, March Madness is primed to be one of the biggest betting events on record. Certainly, sports betting has become more prevalent as of late and this is not completely uncorrelated with activity we are seeing in the stock market. In the Berkshire Hathaway annual letter this year, Warren Buffett noted that “[…] markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did…The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.” He goes on to discuss “feverish” activity in the market, and it’s important to note that sentiment can change quickly.
Thankfully, sentiment currently seems somewhat balanced. The common saying is that market rallies are born on pessimism, they grow on skepticism, they mature on optimism, and then they die on euphoria. Anecdotally, we are hearing a mixture of these sentiments in daily conversations.
Another more consequential factor influencing that sentiment is the 2024 Presidential Election. In this month’s XML Wealth Insights video, Curtis Congdon does a great job equipping everyone with useful facts about presidential elections and market reactions: Markets and the White House
. Take a look at this 5 minute video for an unbiased investment view.
Keeping our eye on the election year, we turn our attention to policy. Interest rate policy is at the forefront and unlikely to avoid political controversy. Here are some things to consider as we expect rate cuts later this year (After a Rate Cut
) as well as some recent news about credit card charges for consumers and the relief that could be in store (Credit Card fees
).
As you are reading this, the first quarter of 2024 is coming to an end. It has been a strong start to the year and we were happy to close March by highlighting and hosting our annual “Womenomics”
webinar: Empowering Women Investors
. This year, XML Wealth Advisor Nicole Treiber
was joined by Candice Tse, Managing Director at Goldman Sachs Asset Management to facilitate this important discussion while honoring and celebrating Women’s History Month.
Best,
Brett
Brett Shane Bernstein, CFP ®
CEO and Co-founder
XML Financial Group
www.XMLFG.com
(O) 301.770.5234 x 2030